GETTING THE FUTURE RIGHT
by Yasushi Kusume
‘We insist on steering our boats because we think we have a pretty good idea of where we should go, but the truth is that much of our steering is in vain.'
Stumbling on Happiness, Daniel Gilbert, Vintage, 2007
Affective forecasting is the process of predicting our future emotions – how we think we’re going to feel. It’s critical for managing our expectations and, Daniel Gilbert believes, it has a profound influence on how we make all our choices and decisions, whether it's as simple as what to have for breakfast or as important as deciding to get married. 'Every decision,' he noted, 'is based on the belief that one choice will probably lead us to feel better than another choice.’
This goes a long way to explaining why we often make commitments we later deeply regret. We do so because we were thinking about the why (causes and consequences) rather than the how (execution) when we made the commitment. And because the future is usually vague and lacking in details, our brain – without us noticing it – often fills in blind spots with what we would like to happen. Or it even just ignores those aspects we don't want to consider. Both can lead to incorrect choices.
Shortcomings
When we imagine the future, we have a tendency to project the present onto it. We think of then in terms of now, and fail to recognise that things will - very likely - be different once they actually happen.
But can we overcome this? Daniel Gilbert thinks we can, and has suggested a very simple solution to help us do so. He suggests we find someone who’s had the experience we are contemplating and asking for their advice. In other words, instead of imagining the future, find out what it is. Consult a surrogate. That said, Daniel Gilbert also noted that it’s not an easy process. Why? Because we tend to believe we’re all unique individuals and that any experience we have will also be unique. We find it hard to believe that anyone else can tell us, with any certainty, what’s going to happen.
Convincing your customers
What, you may now be thinking, does all this have to do with a company and its brand? The answer is this: It illustrates a situation I believe all brands should consider more closely. That is, how do you find a way to provide the information customers need to make the best choices, not only for today but for tomorrow? Do you just want to sell them something that meets their current needs, or those of the future? I’d say it’s the latter. Providing products and services that stay relevant for a long time strikes me as simply good business.
But to get your customers to continue to use what you offer, you need to convince them that your forecasts are the right ones. The trouble is, as we have seen, getting others to accept that someone else knows better what the future may hold is hard, if not impossible. So how do you help them overcome their reluctance to accept advice from others? How do you do that? You use their future selves.
Future selves
At which point I hear you asking: Are you offering them time travel? The answer is no, I’m not. But I am suggesting that you use what you know about them now for insight into what their future selves are going to need.
Here I have to make an assumption: that your researchers will have done their work and collected not just data about people’s age, gender, family status and culture, but also insights into their needs and motivations. Everything, in short, that you need to create your brand propositions. Because it’s from this wealth of research that you’ll be able to determine not only what people are looking for now, but what it’s likely they will be looking for in the future.
It isn’t foolproof. Mistakes can be made. Yet not knowing anything, not having this base of information to work from is far more dangerous. Far more risky.
The best way
‘When we imagine future feelings,’ Daniel Gilbert notes, ‘we find it impossible to ignore what we are feeling now and impossible to recognise how we will think about the things that happen later.’ I believe this. I don’t think it’s overstating the case to say that potential customers need all the guidance a brand can offer to help them choose the right product or service. I’m convinced that providing the most appropriate product and service to customers - for today and the future - is the best way of winning their loyalty to your brand.
And keeping it.
Illustration : Food collection vector created by freepik - www.freepik.com
https://www.freepik.com/vectors/food-collection