Back PRESENT FORWARD OR FUTURE BACK

Destinations

One remedy, proposed by Johnson and Suskewicz, is what they dub a ‘future-back approach’. They say  you should disregard assumptions about how things currently work, and focus instead on the destination – where you want your organization to be in the future. Then come up with a plan to reach that destination.

Of course, that’s easily said. But we all know predicting the future is far from easy. One significant obstacle is the prevailing ‘present-forward’ fallacy. Or, to put it another way, wishful thinking. This is thinking rooted in hopefulness and that, more often than not, is based only on observations about the present. 

As Johnson and Suskewicz point out, many companies that start out as pioneers often end up focusing on what makes them a success now. They believe that extending their current business with incremental improvements is a sustainable strategy. They assume they’ll only ever see positive changes in their environment and think that if they do encounter challenges, they’ll be easily manageable. They don’t take account of the possible ‘real’, unexpected future.

Forecasting the future

So how can we look ahead? Effectively? The Signals Are Talking, by Amy Webb, offers a helpful guide to what’s admittedly a complex process. She advocates what she calls ‘mental ambidexterity’. Ambidexterity is the ability to use both right and left hands with equal proficiency, and what she means is that we need to do two things simultaneously: understand not just what’s happening today, but what could/might happen in the future. To help with this, she offers a six-step plan.

1.     Scan and Collect Information: Gather a wide range of data, including weak signals or fringe information.

2.     Cluster Collected Data: Identify patterns, such as contradictions, inflections, practices, hacks, extremes, and rarities.

3.     Evaluate Patterns: Don't rush to conclusions; instead, ask the right questions and critically assess the identified patterns.

4.     Calculate Timing: Determine when these patterns are likely to manifest. This timing element is crucial and often underestimated.

5.     Create Scenarios: Develop scenarios for probable, pleasurable, and possible futures, then craft corresponding strategies.

6.     Pressure-Test: Challenge your trends, scenarios, and strategy choices. This step is particularly demanding, but crucial for robust forecasting.

From my own experience, I can say that steps 3 and 6 pose the greatest challenges. In step 3, it’s vital to separate the innovators and early adopters from the more ‘general’ users. Monitoring the latter group will give you a more accurate picture of how a product is being received. For step 6, I recommend Gary Klein’s ‘PreMortem Method of Risk Assessment’. A ‘premortem’ involves considering all the reasons – however fanciful – a project might fail, and can help you anticipate potential pitfalls and failures.

Disconnected horizons

All these considerations wouldn’t be complete without a look at the ‘horizon model’. Developed by the McKinsey consulting firm, it offers a three-stage framework for growth and innovation. Horizon 1 (H1): short-term projects that typically offer results within three years. Horizon 2 (H2): adaptations of existing markets, geared to results within five years. Horizon 3 (H3): disruptive innovations, where results may take up to twelve years to appear. 

Typically, H1 and H2 have a present-forward mindset. They home in on incremental improvements and take little account of future disruptions. H3, on the other hand, imagines a future beyond the constraints of the present. And this is all well and good… as long as it doesn’t forget H1 and H2. Too often the H3 vision remains detached from them. It leaps ahead too far and too fast and the horizons get disconnected.

But such disconnection is emblematic of a broader issue. As Johnson and Suskewicz highlight, many executives tend to focus more on administration and less on the future as time passes. They lose sight of the H3 horizon. If they want to unlock their full potential, then organizations need to bridge the gap between their present and future perspectives. They need to ensure that their short and long-term strategies align with a single, coherent, vision.

Embrace and empower

The present-forward and future-back dichotomy is a pivotal consideration for organizations navigating a rapidly changing landscape. While present-forward perspectives are essential for gradual growth and efficiency, it's future-back thinking that empowers organizations to anticipate and adapt to disruptive changes. By embracing both approaches and seamlessly integrating them into their strategic planning, businesses can confidently and resiliently confront the uncertainties of the future.