THE SUGAR DADDY OF SCIENCE
by Yasushi Kusume
Science is a very expensive affair
Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari
In his book Sapiens, Harari writes that, ‘Most of scientific studies are founded because somebody believes they can help attain some political, economic or religious goal.’ He offers as an example the sixteenth century, when kings and bankers invested heavily in geographic expansion, but offered not a penny for the study of child psychology. The reason? The former enabled them to conquer new lands and build trading empires; the latter offered no chance of any profit whatsoever.
He goes on to point out that science is not only poor at prioritizing the directions it takes, it is also incapable of determining what to do with its discoveries. He believes that only political, economic, and religious bodies can make such decisions. And this is why, he suggests, science has always been strongly linked with imperialism and capitalism.
Where are technology and science heading?
One way to determine the direction of advances in technology and science is to monitor investment trends. In particular, to note where today’s most successful companies are placing their money. For example, as Harari writes in Homo Deus, Google has invested 36% of its $2 billion portfolio in life science start-ups. These include several ambitious projects dedicated to extend the human lifespan. In Inevitable, Kevin Kelly notes that Artificial Intelligence has attracted more than $18US billion in investments since 2019. In 2015 alone, more than $2US billion was invested in 322 companies with AI-related technology.
Or you could apply ‘Moore's Law’. This is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel, and it states that the number of components on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. It’s a measure first posited in 1965, and which has been used ever since by the semiconductor industry to guide long-term predictions, set targets, and make plans for future development. As Amy Webb observes in The Signals Are Talking, 'Progress in science and technology accelerates partly because of technology itself.'
Ten factors
All that said, I believe it’s more valuable to understand just what influences and inspires influential investors. This is because technology, as Amy Webb writes, '… does not evolve on its own, in a vacuum.’ For her there are several factors in our daily lives that influence technological advancement, factors that should not be ignored. They are:
1. Wealth distribution
2. Education
3. Government
4. Politics
5. Public health
6. Demography
7. Economy
8. Environment
9. Journalism
10. Media
Ignoring them does us no good, she writes, because, ‘We misidentify trends (or miss them altogether) when we focus exclusively on technology, when the other factorsin play are seemingly unrelated, or when the adjacent source of change aren’t part of a compelling narrative.’
Good science
In their book, Speculative Everything, Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby refer to the following quote by science fiction writer Frederik Pohl. 'Somebody once said that a good science-fiction story should be able to predict not the automobile but the traffic jam. We agree. And so should good science.'
They then go on to argue that those involved in any form of speculative design need to begin by talking about ethical, social, and cultural values. Only when they’ve considered all the implications of a fresh concept can they start to develop those concepts into a product and a technology.
So what’s Design’s role?
Our role as designers, as ‘creatives’, is to generate discussions that will help direct and prioritize scientific advances. It’s part of our job to help people choose their preferable future. We need to help them understand the options available – Amy Webb’s 10 factors - and so influence the direction the science takes.
This is why, in the innovation activity I’ve been involved with, designers use research data to generate several future scenarios we call ‘flictions’. We do our best to envision the benefits – and the disadvantages - of possible future developments. (To take just one hypothetical example: what can go right, and wrong, with a self-driving car). And by doing this, we can help people make the choices that will influence, guide, and create the political, economic and religious directions for our future.
A quote from Stefano Marzano (former Chief Design Officer and executive at Philips and Electrolux), encapsulates the creative community’s responsibility. ‘The future,’ he says, ‘does not fall from the sky like rain, but is made by the actions of those who take responsibility for it today.’ (https://www.stefanomarzano.com/about)